It could sound hyperbolic, however there’s a case to be made that Wednesday’s sport versus Tampa Bay is an important regular-season contest of the Core 4 period.
On Tuesday evening, the Toronto Maple Leafs went into Florida and received handled the way in which the Panthers have handled opponents in seven of their final eight playoff collection. They have been continually above the Leafs, solidly on the defensive aspect of the play. The Leafs needed to get by way of a physique to skate anyplace, and people our bodies don’t transfer — even if you happen to ask them properly.
Choose your metric of alternative, and it was ugly. Through Sportlogiq: pictures have been 37-18, anticipated targets have been 4.19 to 1.69, Florida carried the “time with puck in offensive zone” stat by over seven minutes at even energy, and most tellingly, the “puck battles received” proportion was 70.5 to 29.5 within the Cats’ favour.
The Panthers didn’t even have Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Bennett or Aaron Ekblad.
The conclusion right here after a season of hockey is that every one issues being equal — each groups being wholesome and getting an equal quantity of puck luck — Florida could be a reasonably heavy favorite in a best-of-seven versus the Leafs. That’s not simply my opinion, it is going to be the bulk opinion and it is going to be mirrored within the Vegas odds.
Now, I’m gonna ask you to open your thoughts and embrace an idea that isn’t so neat and tidy right here, so take a breath.
My level with all of the above is that the Panthers are a matchup nightmare for the Leafs. However that’s to not say that the Panthers are essentially the higher crew at giant. They are often dangerous for the Leafs, whereas the Leafs are nonetheless adequate to be thought of Cup contenders.
That’s as a result of the league has 32 groups — 16 within the playoffs — and every crew has to discover a approach by way of 31 different lineup constitutions, and this season’s Leafs have made the case that they’ll dangle with nearly anybody. After 82 video games, the Leafs will doubtless end with extra factors than Florida in opposition to stated 31 groups, and matchup hockey is bizarre.
• Florida is 3-1-0 vs. Toronto
• Toronto is 3-0-0 vs. Tampa Bay
• Montreal is 4-0-0 vs. Florida
• Ottawa is 3-0-0 vs. Toronto
So once more, it’s that matchup factor I’m speaking about. The Panthers are constructed to prey on the Leafs’ important weak spot, which I believe it’s secure to say largely revolves round their core’s capability to will their approach by way of and out-battle a very heavy opponent in a playoff-style atmosphere. We’ve seen the outcomes for years, and performing like these outcomes are irrelevant could be analytical negligence. It’s an issue for Toronto.
So, the Leafs must keep away from Florida.
By beating Tampa Bay on Wednesday evening, the Leafs may all however assure themselves the division, as it could depart Tampa Bay 4 factors again with 4 video games to go, with Toronto in possession of the tiebreakers. That might imply the Leafs may go 2-2 down the stretch whereas the Lightning go 4-0, and so they’d nonetheless win the division. A document of 3-1 from Tampa would imply the Leafs may declare the division by going 1-3, and so forth.
You get the image — beat Tampa and win the Atlantic for the primary time within the Core 4 period. That in itself could be value celebrating.
A divisional win would additionally get the Leafs one among Ottawa or Montreal, who, in fact, aren’t pushovers. However let’s converse frankly right here: I believe even Ottawa and Montreal could be the primary to inform you “We’re not Florida or Tampa Bay.” The Florida groups have current Stanley Cup pedigree, the Bolts are one of the best crew within the East since early February, and we simply went over what the Panthers are to the Leafs.
Whenever you get to the playoffs, each crew left is nice, so sure, the Leafs could be given a tricky collection by both Canadian opponent, however clearly, they might be the favorite.
Within the almost certainly final result have been they to win the Atlantic — a Battle of Ontario — the Leafs could be going through a reasonably mid offensive crew, because the Sens sit twentieth in targets per sport. With the way in which the Leafs have excelled at taking away high-danger possibilities since including Brandon Carlo, and the query marks round Linus Ullmark, there could be a path by way of for them. It’s not a given, however let’s not faux the matchup is equally as difficult as Florida or Tampa Bay.
The perfect half a couple of collection in opposition to Ottawa or Montreal is that if the Leafs dealt with their enterprise and did get by way of, Florida and Tampa must endure the dogfight that’s … Florida and Tampa. That might imply that the husk of whichever crew they’d get subsequent could be weakened from a major battle. Florida is a good crew, but it surely’s not essentially the most dynamically proficient crew on the market, so the worth gained by them having even one or two accidents is large. That was evidenced by their exhibiting in Toronto on April 2 with out Aleksander Barkov. The Leafs would have a a lot better probability versus a softened Panthers crew.
Now, if the Leafs lose to Tampa Bay on Wednesday evening, the 2 could be tied for the division lead in factors, however the Leafs would lose on the primary tiebreaker, regulation wins (assuming the Lightning received the win in regulation). The Lightning are scorching and have extra residence video games and non-playoff opponents remaining of their remaining 4. It wouldn’t be a lock, however it could tremendously improve the Leafs’ odds of getting a first-round matchup with Florida, which is alleged to be getting Bennett again in Recreation 1, perhaps Tkachuk too, and Ekblad again in Recreation 3. You’d be getting them at full pressure inside a number of video games, and we’ve lined how I believe that will go.
To take it additional: let’s say the Leafs don’t get a softer matchup to start out, and so they draw Florida, and so they lose, effectively — it could imply the top of the Core 4. Mitch Marner would virtually definitely be gone, by some type of mutual separation, and John Tavares could be on the sidelines unsigned too. The refrain to choose new horses to journey could be loud.
But when this core lastly breaks by way of and wins, we may even see a world the place administration and followers begin to actually consider, the place Matthew Knies and Bobby McMann develop into valued depth scorers, and the place the Leafs lengthen the core and use the rising cap to tangibly add round them within the years forward. There may very well be quite a few extra runs for the crew sooner or later.
A lot of that new path hinges on playoff success, which hinges on seeding, which hinges on Wednesday evening versus Tampa.
No, the crew received’t have a look at it like this internally — that’s for us to do. However the view from 30,000 ft reveals two very divergent paths for this crew, and so they’ll doubtless begin heading down one of many two instructions primarily based the sport in opposition to the Lightning.
It could simply be a regular-season sport, one among 82, but it surely may also trace at a path for the way forward for the crew with which Leafs followers have change into all too acquainted.
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