Friday Four: Rantanen’s looming extension puts Avalanche in big predicament

The Friday 4 is a set of ideas and data on some intriguing participant storylines from across the NHL. On deck this week:

• Rantanen’s contract may change into a problem for Avs

• Canada could remorse not taking Thompson

• Is the league doing sufficient to guard its stars?

• Bobrovsky wants some relaxation

Mikko Rantanen is among the NHL’s most unheralded superstars. 

The common hockey fan understands Rantanen is an effective participant, however possibly not simply how good. He’s on tempo for over 100 factors and 40 objectives for the third straight season and sits third in ice time amongst all forwards within the league. If there’s a dialogue about who the NHL’s finest gamers are in the present day, you’ll hear folks level to McDavid, Draisaitl, Matthews, MacKinnon, Kucherov and Kaprizov, but you gained’t typically hear Rantanen’s title. 

One one who is aware of his price is Rantanen himself. The 28-year-old’s contract is expiring on the finish of this season and it doesn’t seem he and the Avalanche are shut on an extension. Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos noted in his most recent Trade Board that the 2 sides have important floor to bridge in the event that they hope to succeed in an settlement, making issues very difficult for Colorado with the commerce deadline quick approaching. Kypreos provides that Colorado has acquired calls on Rantanen, however the Avalanche hope to maintain him. That’s the splendid situation, nonetheless, if Rantanen isn’t locked up by the deadline, would the Avs ever think about transferring him?

One of many causes Rantanen can get ignored is that pretty much as good as he’s, he’s arguably the third-best participant on his personal workforce. It’s splitting hairs, however you would simply make a case that Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar are each extra vital to the Avs than Rantanen, which complicates issues financially. MacKinnon is making $12.6 million, although he signed that deal in 2022 when there was a wholly completely different cap scenario. At the moment, MacKinnon turned the league’s highest-paid participant, however now the cap is meant to make a major soar and proceed on an upward trajectory. The Avs most likely would wish to keep an inside cap below MacKinnon’s quantity nevertheless it’s unlikely Rantanen would signal long-term for lower than that. 

Rantanen may find yourself Leon Draisaitl as extra of a comparable. Draisaitl’s extension, price $14 million yearly, kicks in subsequent season, and each gamers have very comparable numbers this yr and final season. Perhaps Rantanen settles for rather less than $14 million, nevertheless it’s seemingly going to be nearer to Draisaitl’s quantity than MacKinnon’s. How comfy would Colorado be paying Rantanen greater than their finest participant, the league’s main scorer and maybe a back-to-back Hart Trophy winner relying on how this season performs out?

Even when it makes the Avs uncomfortable, they could not have a alternative. Colorado is among the extra top-heavy groups within the league, and its bottom-nine ahead group is extraordinarily skinny. The workforce depends on Rantanen not solely offensively, but in addition to maneuver him to centre on the second line at instances as effectively. Casey Mittelstadt has actually struggled and the posh of with the ability to shift somebody like Rantanen into his spot to steadiness out the lineup is invaluable. If the Avs weren’t capable of come to phrases with Rantanen, it could solely add much more strain on the shoulders of MacKinnon and Makar.

The one situation the place it could even remotely make sense to think about transferring Rantanen is that if the Avs have been sure they couldn’t re-sign him. It will be a final resort transfer to keep away from dropping the participant for nothing in free company. Rantanen will surely deliver again a haul, and Colorado may all the time goal a number of roster gamers in return to assist steadiness out their lineup. None could be pretty much as good as Rantanen, although, and it’s arduous to ascertain any kind of deal the place Colorado would come out forward. It will positively make them worse within the quick time period and hamper their probabilities at a protracted playoff run. 

There’s additionally the query of what deal Rantanen is seeking to signal. We’re assuming he desires an eight-year contract, nevertheless it’s potential he may go for a shorter time period, very like Auston Matthews not too long ago did. Rantanen may doubtlessly think about a three-to-four-year deal after which look to money in a single remaining time in his early 30s with a max-term contract when the cap rises. I’m undecided how a lot that might decrease the AAV for Colorado and regardless, their cap scenario goes to change into very difficult subsequent season. 

The Avalanche are already very tight to the cap, and Rantanen is prone to get at the very least someplace within the neighborhood of a $4 million elevate in the event that they maintain him. That’s going to place extra pressure on the roster and doubtlessly ship one other blow to Colorado’s depth, even with a rising cap. Then there’s additionally the matter of Gabriel Landeskog, who’s attempting to work his method again from damage. Ought to he make a comeback, Colorado must discover room for his $7 million cap hit as effectively. 

If Rantanen have been to change into accessible, there would little doubt be dozens of groups lining as much as make their pitch each within the commerce market and subsequent summer season in free company. The Avs positively don’t need it to get to that time, however they’re caught between a rock and a tough place the place Rantanen is worried. 

The Avalanche could not be capable of afford to maintain Rantanen, they usually could not be capable of afford to lose him. 

The roster choice for Group Canada on the 4 Nations Face-Off has already been scrutinized up and down, and count on that to change into much more intense if Canada doesn’t win the event. Following Canada’s disappointing departure on the World Junior Hockey Championship and a few questionable roster choices there, one other poor exhibiting in February will definitely have followers up in arms. 

One of many first locations fingers could possibly be pointed at is the goaltending. Usually a power for Canada, this yr’s trio — Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill and Sam Montembeault — leaves loads to be desired. There’s no apparent, bona fide primary out of the bunch, which makes it all of the extra curious Logan Thompson was left off the roster. 

The Washington Capitals goaltender is having a stellar season, sporting a 22-2-3 report with a .925 save share and is closing in on Connor Hellebuyck in objectives saved above anticipated at 26.8. Thompson has been much more unimaginable of late, permitting one objective or much less in seven of his previous 11 begins. He has been as near excellent as you may be in objective and one of many largest causes the Capitals are atop the Metropolitan Division. In 27 appearances, Thompson has managed to select up factors in all however two video games. 

Regardless of all this, it appears Thompson was by no means actually that near making the squad.

“If there was to be an damage, I do know I most likely will not get that decision, and that is OK,” Thompson stated. “They have their guys, and I simply hope that Canada goes on the market and wins all of it.”

Montembeault, Binnington and Hill have a mixed save share of .899 this season, so there’s little doubt Thompson may actually assist the workforce, and he’s by far the most well liked goalie Canada has at their disposal proper now. 

We shouldn’t write off Canada’s goaltending solely, as each Binnington and Hill have big-game expertise and Stanley Cups to their names. They might simply come via and play effectively, however a lot about goaltending is catching lightning in a bottle and who’s enjoying the very best proper now. 

If Group Canada had a mulligan, they’d most likely apply it to Thompson. 

There was a whole lot of debate about Connor McDavid’s suspension, however to me it’s a easy case of two issues may be true. The officers have to do a greater job in that scenario and there’s by no means an excuse for cross-checking somebody within the face like McDavid did. 

As Conor Garland was hanging off McDavid within the dying seconds, it introduced up the query: Does the league do sufficient to guard its stars? The NFL and NBA clearly see the worth in ensuring their stars are capable of carry out at a excessive stage, even when which means some questionable roughing-the-passer penalties. I don’t assume the NHL has to do something drastic so far as the foundations go, apart from merely calling penalties after they’re dedicated. 

If McDavid attracts 10 penalties in a recreation, name 10 penalties. NHL officers all the time appear to be attempting to handle the sport and steadiness out the calls far greater than different sports activities. If one workforce has two or three energy performs within the first interval, they aren’t getting one other one till the opposition will get at the very least one or two. 

Groups additionally know that refs are likely to put their whistles away late in video games and in additional time, which is probably going why Garland appeared to worry no repercussions latching onto McDavid. Garland knew there was so little time left within the recreation that he seemingly wouldn’t be known as for a penalty or if he did, there wouldn’t be sufficient time left for it to matter.

My outside-the-box suggestion could be to make a rule that if a participant takes a penalty within the remaining 15 seconds with their workforce main (or in additional time) 30 seconds get added again onto the sport clock. That method the workforce attempting to tie the sport will get some legit power-play time and it could be at the very least considerably of a deterrent for the workforce resulting in commit intentional infractions. 

I don’t essentially assume the NHL has to make issues simpler on star gamers, however on the finish of the day, it’s nonetheless a enterprise. Nobody desires to purchase a ticket and see a participant hanging throughout McDavid, nobody desires to see anybody get cross-checked within the head and nobody desires to see the league’s finest participant miss three video games. 

Sergei Bobrovsky has performed a whole lot of hockey over the previous few seasons. 

The Panthers netminder is on tempo for his fourth straight season of greater than 50 begins to go together with back-to-back deep playoff runs. Bobrovsky has performed a further 43 video games over Florida’s previous two post-seasons, one thing that’s little doubt beginning to put on the 36-year-old down and take a toll on his numbers. 

The usually dependable Bobrovsky hasn’t been as sharp as he has up to now. He owns an .897 save share this season and issues have gotten worse of late. Bobrovsky has allowed 4 objectives in three of his previous 4 begins and has managed solely two wins this month. It will most likely be smart for the Panthers to begin giving Spencer Knight extra enjoying time, who has been wonderful currently. 

Knight is 3-1-0 with a .960 save share in January and is beginning to actually discover his groove. The 23-year-old remains to be very inexperienced with barely 75 NHL video games to his credit score, however he’s outperforming Bobrovsky proper now and will assist give the veteran some much-needed relaxation. I don’t assume there’s any kind of goalie controversy in Florida, and Bobrovsky will virtually actually begin Sport 1 of the playoffs, although Knight may play an important function down the stretch right here. 

The Panthers are in a good battle with the Toronto Maple Leafs for the Atlantic Division title, and Knight may maintain them within the hunt with the way in which he’s enjoying and assist Bobrovsky stay contemporary on the similar time. Even when the Panthers don’t declare the division, I don’t assume they’ll be too devastated about it. Florida’s No. 1 concern is attending to the playoffs wholesome and rested up for what they’ll be hoping is one other deep run. 

Bobrovsky was an enormous cause the Panthers have been capable of seize the Cup final season, and in the event that they plan to repeat, he’ll have to play an analogous function this spring. Knight could possibly be the important thing to creating certain Bobrovsky’s physique is in the very best place to as soon as once more make that occur.