Soft Landing for the 2023 Real Estate Market Despite Higher Interest Rates

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L’ÎLE-DES-SŒURS, Quebec, Jan. 11, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The Quebec Skilled Affiliation of Actual Property Brokers (QPAREB) has simply launched its residential actual property market statistics for the province of Quebec, based mostly on the actual property brokers’ Centris provincial database.

In 2023, there have been 75,853 residential gross sales in Quebec. This can be a decline of 13 per cent, or 10,995 transactions, in comparison with 2022. It ought to be famous that this degree of transactional exercise is barely decrease than the historic common.

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“An orderly normalization of the Quebec market befell in 2023, regardless of a context that has been marked by a brutal hike in rates of interest since 2022. For the reason that begin of the pandemic, youthful households have needed to bear the brunt of sharply rising costs. Nevertheless, the story is totally different for repeat consumers, who, due to their robust monetary capability, have been capable of climate the rise in property values. Nevertheless, a discount within the pool of certified first-time homebuyers can adversely have an effect on the transactional chain. For a market to be fluid, there have to be a enough variety of first-time homebuyers,” notes Charles Brant, QPAREB Market Evaluation Director.

“The fourth quarter displays a market with even fewer first-time homebuyers. Two elements are influencing the postponement of buy plans: a local weather of financial uncertainty and expectations of a drop in rates of interest in 2024. The identical behaviour is noticed in sellers, who observe that consumers are extra cautious and hesitant. Sellers are subsequently additionally prone to postpone their gross sales undertaking till a future date. The yr thus ended with a low transaction degree and comparatively few properties accessible on the market. The result’s a stagnation of the market which stays squarely in sellers’ territory. Consequently, costs are typically remaining below strain, both growing or remaining secure. Solely hardly ever in sure markets with the very best property costs are they falling.”

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Annual Highlights for the Province

Gross sales

• Throughout the province, the decline in transactional exercise was noticed throughout all property classes, with variations between -10 per cent and -21 per cent. Plexes with two to 5 models stand out with a sharper drop in gross sales (-21 per cent in a single yr). Condominiums and single-family houses recorded respective decreases of 15 per cent and 10 per cent.
• As for metropolitan areas, the Gatineau, Montreal, and Sherbrooke CMAs posted the most important declines, -15 per cent, -14 per cent and -14 per cent, respectively. Gross sales have been additionally down within the CMAs of Drummondville (-10 per cent), Quebec City (-7 per cent), Trois-Rivières (-7 per cent) and Saguenay (-7 per cent).
• City centres noticed a extra marked lower in gross sales from 2022 to 2023. Sept-Îles registered the best drop, down by 26 per cent in 2023. The markets in Shawinigan (-21 per cent), Lachute (-20 per cent), Salaberry-de-Valleyfield (-19 per cent) and Saint-Hyacinthe (-18 per cent) additionally recorded important declines. A extra modest slowdown was noticed in Baie-Comeau (-5 per cent), Val-d’Or (-4 per cent), Cowansville (-3 per cent) and Amos (-2 per cent). Lastly, gross sales have been both secure or elevated within the Sainte-Marie (0 per cent) and Alma (+4 per cent) markets.
• The La Tuque and Charlevoix markets posted the sharpest declines, dropping by 36 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively. Declines have been additionally reported in 2023 within the municipalities of Mont-Tremblant (-21 per cent), Mont-Laurier (-12 per cent), Saint-Sauveur (-10 per cent) and Rawdon (-10 per cent). Nevertheless, the Sainte-Adèle (+1 per cent) and Montmagny (+8 per cent) markets have been up.

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Energetic Listings

• The buildup of obtainable properties accelerated in 2023. The variety of lively listings stood at 32,154 throughout Quebec, a rise of 24 per cent in comparison with 2022, however nonetheless properly beneath the historic common.

Median Costs

• Throughout Quebec, the median value for single-family houses stood at $416,500, representing zero change (0 per cent) in comparison with 2022.
• As for condominiums, the median value dropped to $360,000, a slight lower of 1 per cent in comparison with 2022.
• Small earnings properties, with a median value of $520,000, noticed a rise in comparison with 2022, rising by 4 per cent.

Market Circumstances

• Regardless of the slowdown in transactional exercise, the variety of months required to promote the stock of residential properties available on the market stays at ranges that favour sellers throughout the province. The drop in gross sales is mirrored particularly by a gradual enhance in lively listings. The variety of months required to promote the stock is thus as much as 5.1 months (all classes mixed).

Promoting Instances

• The common promoting time for single-family houses in Quebec was 54 days in 2023, or 13 days greater than in 2022. Condominiums and small earnings properties adopted at 58 days and 75 days, respectively. That is 14 days extra for condominiums and plexes.

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Annual Highlights for Metropolitan Areas

Montreal CMA

• Residential gross sales within the Montreal CMA territory totalled 36,186 in 2023. This can be a lower of 6,043 transactions or 14 per cent from final yr.
• Energetic listings for the Montreal CMA elevated by 28 per cent in comparison with final yr. There have been 15,595 lively listings in 2023. This enhance was pushed by a 32 per cent soar in listings of single-family houses. Condominiums and small earnings properties additionally noticed will increase of 27 per cent and 17 per cent respectively. The variety of months required to promote the stock is thus as much as 5.2 months (all classes mixed).
• The median value dropped in all three property classes within the Montreal CMA. The median value of single-family houses ($541,000) and small earnings properties ($721,500) is down, with respective variations of -2 per cent and -3 per cent. Condominiums reached a median value of $390,000 in 2023, a decline of 1 per cent from final yr.

Quebec Metropolis CMA

• The Quebec Metropolis CMA posted 8,309 residential gross sales in 2023. This represents a lower of seven per cent in comparison with 2022. However, this degree of gross sales is above the historic common.
• Energetic listings for the Quebec Metropolis CMA grew by solely 11 per cent in comparison with final yr. There have been 2,901 lively listings in 2023. This enhance was pushed by listings of single-family houses and condominiums which grew by 20 per cent and three per cent, respectively. Plexes recorded a decline of their stock of obtainable properties, a variation of -6 per cent. The variety of months required to promote the stock is as much as 4.2 months (all classes mixed).
• Median costs rose within the Quebec Metropolis CMA. The median value for single-family houses reached $350,000, up 3 per cent from a yr in the past. The median value for condominiums stood at $240,000, a achieve of 4 per cent in comparison with 2022. The median value of small earnings properties was $389,500, a rise of 1 per cent.

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Gatineau CMA

• Residential gross sales within the Gatineau CMA territory amounted to 4,045 in 2023. This can be a lower of 726 transactions or 15 per cent from 2022. This degree of gross sales is barely decrease than the historic common.
• Within the Gatineau CMA, lively listings rose in 2023, up 14 per cent in comparison with final yr. There have been 1,147 lively listings in 2023. This enhance is primarily as a result of single-family houses (+15 per cent) and condominiums (+17 per cent). The variety of lively listings of small earnings properties posted a extra modest enhance (+3 per cent). Lastly, whereas the variety of months wanted to promote the stock is growing, it stays very low at 3.4 months (all classes mixed).
• The median value for single-family houses was $440,000 in 2023, down 2 per cent from final yr. With a median value of $490,000, the single-family class additionally posted a 5 per cent decline. The median value of condominiums remained secure at $300,000.

Sherbrooke CMA

• Residential gross sales within the Sherbrooke CMA territory amounted to 1,733 in 2023. This can be a lower of 289 transactions or 14 per cent from final yr. This degree of gross sales is slightly below the historic common.
• In 2023, lively listings reached 617 properties, up 28 per cent from a yr in the past. Condominiums, adopted by single-family houses, are the classes having recorded probably the most important accumulations of properties on the market available on the market, with respective will increase of 41 per cent and 34 per cent. The variety of accessible small earnings properties was secure (-1 per cent). Lastly, the variety of months required to promote the stock is as much as 4.3 months (all classes mixed).
• Median costs rose within the Sherbrooke CMA. Single-family houses bought at a median value of $377,943, a rise of 8 per cent from a yr in the past. The median value of condominiums stood at $275,000, a achieve of three per cent in comparison with 2022. The median value of small earnings properties rose 8 per cent to achieve $400,000.

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Trois-Rivières CMA

• The Trois-Rivières CMA recorded 1,353 residential gross sales in its territory throughout 2023, down by 7 per cent in comparison with 2022. This degree of gross sales is above the historic common.
  • Energetic listings within the Trois-Rivières CMA elevated barely within the final yr, up by solely 2 per cent in comparison with 2022. There have been 276 lively listings in 2023. Single-family houses noticed the variety of properties on the market enhance by 8 per cent. For his or her half, plexes and condominiums recorded respective declines of 13 per cent and 4 per cent. The variety of months required to promote the stock is thus as much as 2.4 months (all classes mixed).
  • The Trois-Rivières CMA reported greater median costs. The median value for a single-family house was $300,000, up 5 per cent from a yr in the past. The median value for condominiums stood at $240,000, a achieve of 6 per cent in comparison with 2022. The median value of small earnings properties rose 8 per cent to achieve $282,000.

Saguenay CMA

• The Saguenay CMA recorded 1,227 residential gross sales in 2023. This represents a drop of seven per cent in comparison with 2022. Gross sales are barely decrease than the historic common.
• Energetic listings within the Saguenay CMA jumped by 12 per cent in comparison with 2022. The rise in listings was pushed by a resurgence in single-family houses, which noticed a 37 per cent development in properties accessible on the market. Listings of condominiums and plexes had respective declines of 20 per cent and 27 per cent. The variety of months wanted to promote the stock of properties available on the market is growing and stands at 4.6, remaining firmly entrenched in sellers’ territory (all classes mixed).
• Median costs have been up within the Saguenay CMA. The median value of single-family houses stood at $260,000 in 2023, rising by 7 per cent in comparison with 2022. The median value was $220,000 for condominiums, rising by 13 per cent. The median value of plexes posted a achieve of 11 per cent to achieve $249,000.

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Drummondville CMA

• The Drummondville CMA recorded 734 residential gross sales in its territory in 2023, a lower of 79 transactions (-10 per cent) in comparison with 2022. This degree of gross sales is above the historic common.
• Energetic listings within the Drummondville CMA rose within the final yr, up 16 per cent in comparison with 2022. There have been 304 lively listings in 2023. This enhance is primarily as a result of plexes (+21 per cent) and single-family houses (+17 per cent). Lastly, the variety of months required to promote the stock is as much as 5.0 months (all classes mixed).
• The median value of single-family houses within the Drummondville CMA stood at $335,000 in 2023, a rise of 5 per cent in comparison with 2022. The median value was $237,450 for condominiums, rising by 9 per cent. With a median value of $385,000, the plex class recorded a notable enhance of 15 per cent.

Abitibi-Témiscamingue

• The slowdown in gross sales continued for a 3rd yr in 2023 in Abitibi-Témiscamingue. Yearly transactions totalled 1,134, a 9 per cent drop in comparison with 2022.
• The variety of lively listings stood at 534 region-wide in 2023, leaping by 21 per cent in comparison with 2022.
• The median value for a single-family house in Amos was $255,000, up 2 per cent from 2022. In Val-d’Or, the median value of single-family houses rose by 2 per cent to achieve $320,000. Nevertheless, the median value for a single-family house in Rouyn-Noranda dropped to $295,000, a variation of -2 per cent.

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Bas-Saint-Laurent

• The slowdown in gross sales continued for a second yr in 2023 within the Bas-Saint-Laurent. Yearly transactions totalled 1,617, a lower of seven per cent in comparison with 2022.
• The variety of lively listings stood at 694 region-wide in 2023, a rise of solely 6 per cent in comparison with 2022.
• The median value of single-family houses was $189,000 in Matane, a marked enhance of 15 per cent in comparison with 2022. In Sept-Îles, the median value of single-family houses reached $245,000, a rise of seven per cent. In Rivière-du-Loup, the median value of single-family houses was up 3 per cent to achieve $269,900.

Côte-Nord

• The slowdown in gross sales continued for a second yr in 2023 within the Côte-Nord area. With 535 transactions for the yr, this can be a lower of 16 per cent in comparison with 2022.
• Energetic listings stood at 167 throughout the area in 2023, a decline of 11 per cent in comparison with 2022.
• The median value of single-family houses was $172,500 in Baie-Comeau, up 8 per cent in comparison with 2022. In Sept-Îles, the median value of single-family houses reached $245,000, a rise of seven per cent.

Lanaudière

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• The slowdown in gross sales continued for a 3rd yr in 2023 within the Lanaudière. Yearly transactions totalled 6,204, a lower of 13 per cent in comparison with 2022.
• The variety of lively listings was 2,149 region-wide in 2023, a rise of 33 per cent from 2022.
• The median value of single-family houses was $388,250 in Joliette, up 2 per cent from 2022. In Rawdon, the median value of single-family houses declined by 5 per cent, falling to $315,000.

Laurentides

• The slowdown in gross sales continued for a 3rd yr in 2023 within the Laurentides. Yearly transactions totalled 8,120, a lower of 14 per cent in comparison with 2022.
• The variety of lively listings stood at 3,884 region-wide in 2023, a rise of 44 per cent from 2022.
• The median value of single-family houses was $437,000 in Sainte-Adèle, down 3 per cent from 2022. In Sainte-Agathe, the median value of single-family houses stood at $375,000, a drop of three per cent. Whereas in Saint-Sauveur, the median value of single-family houses reached $545,000, a rise of three per cent. In Mont-Tremblant, the median value of single-family houses stood at $535,000, up 9 per cent. In Mont-Laurier, the median value of single-family houses rose by 10 per cent to achieve $285,000. Lachute noticed a 12 per cent soar within the median value to achieve $357,000.

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This fall 2023 Information

Please seek the advice of the Barometer – Residential Market to view 4th quarter 2023 information.

Further data:

Detailed and cumulative month-to-month statistics for the province and areas

If you need further data from the Market Evaluation Division, similar to particular information or regional particulars on the actual property market, please write to us.

Concerning the Quebec Skilled Affiliation of Actual Property Brokers

The Quebec Skilled Affiliation of Actual Property Brokers (QPAREB) is a non-profit affiliation that brings collectively greater than 14,000 actual property brokers and businesses. It’s chargeable for selling and defending their pursuits whereas bearing in mind the problems dealing with the occupation and the assorted skilled and regional realities of its members. The QPAREB can also be a serious participant in lots of actual property dossiers, together with the implementation of measures that promote homeownership. The Affiliation stories on Québec’s residential actual property market statistics, supplies coaching, instruments and providers referring to actual property, and facilitates the gathering, dissemination and change of knowledge. The QPAREB has its head workplace in Quebec Metropolis, administrative workplaces in Montreal and a regional workplace in Saguenay. It has two subsidiaries: Société Centris inc. and the Collège de l’immobilier du Québec. Observe its actions at qpareb.ca or through its social media pages: Fb, LinkedIn, Twitter and Instagram.

For extra data:
Ariane Boulé
Morin Relations Publiques
media@qpareb.ca
Picture financial institution (credit score QPAREB) accessible freed from cost.

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